I
should make two quick points before I proceed with this. One, I
absolutely do not like the ethnic coloration that we give to politics in
Nigeria. I think that as a country, the best way to attain the height
of our potential is to move together as one, not allowing those things
which divide us hold us back.
The second thing, which is a corollary to
the foregoing is that I am not in support of zoning. In truth, I think
any government that wants to do Nigeria good should instantly kill the
idea of zoning, start to see that every part of the country is fairly
treated, gets its due and that people get appointed into offices not
because of where they come from but on the strength of their abilities.
Just give merit the lead and let’s see if the sky can hold Nigeria back.
Having said that, it would be playing to
the ostrich to pretend that I do not understand that the situation with
tribe, religion and ethnicity will not change in Nigeria overnight. It
would not because whipping those sentiments is currently the most potent
weapon in the hands of our political elite and a lot of Nigerians get
carried away and follow the tide of politicians without question. This
is why there have been a lot of permutations about what ethnic group
will be influential and which will be redundant in the incoming
administration.
One
of the often repeated arguments is that the South-South and the
South-East have done themselves in by not voting for the All
Progressives Congress and jeopardising the opportunity to get any of the
juicy political offices under the Buhari administration.
Most of those who champion this position
are people of Yoruba extraction of the South-West and the arguments are
usually based on the superior sense of political alertness that the
sponsors feel.
A lot of people in the South-West are so
proud of their political leaders and the role they played in the
formation of the APC that they write off those who did not join the
train as political nonstarters with little or no understanding of the
times. Depending on who is pushing these arguments and the depth with
which they push it, I go away with one or two or all of the following
impressions about them. I think that they are either naïve or arrogant
or are affected by a combination of both.
Of these tendencies, the one I find most
unacceptable is arrogance. Unfortunately, it is the most likely in the
circumstance even though it is also the most untraditional of the
Yoruba. Even if the Yoruba political elite are smart as to be able to
read the political barometer and align with the right people at the
right time, the traditional Yoruba person does, ordinarily, not gloat
over his achievements. After all, are they not the people who suggest
cautious humility when they counsel that if your yam sprouts, you should
not brag about it? So, why beat your own drums so loud especially in
the spite of other ethnic groups?
In this loud vainglory, I think the
Yoruba risk two things. One is that it may dig a deeper gulf between
them and the two other zones in the South and two, it may get the North
suspicious of the ambition of Yoruba politicians.
Now, we should get this clear, the major,
in fact most prominent, factor that ensured a Buhari win in the March
election is the long held determination of the northern part of the
country that “power” must return to them in 2015. With due respect to
the fact that the South-West delivered votes and more importantly, made
it easy for the APC candidate to obtain the required percentage of votes
in 25 states, Northern Nigeria spoke with eloquent unity with their
votes during these last elections. The South-West cannot say the same.
The zone failed to pull its weight in the measure that bookmakers
predicted as total number of votes cast in the zone and those delivered
to the APC candidate were incredibly unimpressive.
In a zone where over nine million people
were said to have collected their Permanent Voter Cards before the
elections, less than 50 per cent of that number came out to vote. And
then out of this number, Buhari got a paltry 2.4 million votes, about
600, 000 votes more than that of President Goodluck Jonathan. Compare
this to the North-West zone where votes from two states, Kano and
Jigawa, were close to 2.9 million, almost half a million over the total
that the South-West offered.
So, how does the South-West hope to be
equal partners with the North to the extent that its people will
disparage other groups in this game? In addition to the side comments
that I referred to earlier, there are reports of the alleged entitled
disposition of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the distribution of offices as the
party gets closer to forming a government.
Which is where the South-West might soon
find itself fishing in troubled waters. Yoruba politicians may be smart
and strategic but power is an industry for the North. This is why it
sought after the Presidency with passionate doggedness for years and now
that it is in the kitty, they will come against anyone who denies them
the opportunity to totally own the President and his administration.
With my understanding of Nigerian
politics, politicians from the North are most adept at the deployment of
power when one of their own gets into office. I do not see how things
would be different when Buhari becomes President especially because of
the quantum of support that he got from them. Anyone in doubt of this
should check the political history of Nigeria and see the deal that the
late eminent Kwara politician, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki, and the late
business mogul and politician, M.K.O. Abiola got from the North in the
Second Republic.
What northern leaders, including the
political, traditional and religious ones, are likely to do is to move
in on Buhari and shield him from any overbearing influence from any
other part of the country.
A signal of the political savviness of
the North is the success that it allowed the APC to make in the
North-West in particular and all the three northern zones in general.
The result gives credence to the position taken by Prof. Ango Abdullahi
on behalf of the Northern Elders’ Forum that the North was going to
support any party that fielded a northern candidate.
With a total of 162 House of
Representatives members and 46 senators from the three zones in the
North, it would be easy for the government to get anything done without
the help of members from the South-West especially if efforts are made
to reach out to lawmakers from the South-East and South-South, most of
who belong to the Peoples Democratic Party and already think that the
South-West is against their interest. The Yoruba might then just find
itself in the cold.
Of course, some would say there is enough
consolation in having the vice-presidency but Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had
that office without occupying it between 2003 and 2007. Who says that
cannot happen again?
This is why Yoruba leaders need to stop
flexing muscles now and not overreach themselves. This is why political
leaders from the South-West zone must put national interest above
personal, and even regional interests. This is why the Yoruba must not
present themselves as too ambitious in this dispensation. This is why
the Yoruba, in spite of whatever advantage, should toe that popular line
of seeking equity, justice and the fair treatment of every part of the
country. The Yoruba are very well known for that and championing these
virtues at the national level is a good way to actualise the promise of
change that they made to the people.
Unless this happens, we may soon have to
contend with a formidable force, which does not just have the capacity
for overrun but is prepared to deploy its arsenal to the eternal regret
of the group which was the beautiful bride just one day before.
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