President-elect Muhammadu Buhari is likely to emerge as the most
powerful and influential president in Nigeria’s history. And there are
several reasons for that.
First, his hard won victory at the ballot box was 12 years in the making and it came at expense of a sitting president; a feat never before achieved in a country of diverse social, business and political interest. 30 years ago, it was the hurting business and political interests of a handful of military officers that brought down his government. Today, what Buhari has to thank for his return to power is the damage done to the political interest of the entire northern region which was the price paid to keep the same handful of military officers influential. For this reason and the experience of last 16 years of democracy, Buhari is likely to enjoy the political support of his base, the north till he chooses to quit or is constitutionally unable to continue. The alternative to that support will most probably be ceding power to other regions of the country.
From his utterances since elected however, it is clear that the president-elect is more focused on the nitty-gritty of governance, ending poverty, unemployment and is not very keen on politics and political administration. Evidence of this is in his hands-off approach to how the process is managed and who emerges in the leadership tussle for the Senate presidency and speaker of the House of Representatives. So far, the reason deduced for his stance is the likely repercussion in meddling with the selection process for matters that are strictly speaking; affairs of the National Assembly.
But the repercussions could be greater if a leadership that will be willing to challenge his authority at every turn emerges in both the lower and upper houses of assembly. Depending on style and character, whoever emerges Senate President could also wield more power and influence than any of his or her predecessors. There is a greater chance of that happening if Bukola Saraki emerges Senate President. Under David Mark, you wouldn’t be too far off the mark by suggesting the senate has been a rubber stamp assembly. With age on his side and the Senate Presidency as a platform, Saraki also has the potential to carve out a political empire for himself that will rival that of Bola Tinubu. We have seen him do it with the Nigeria’s Governance Forum, which wasn’t really a political entity until he managed to turn it into a potent force. For the short period that the late Chuba Okadigbo was Senate President and the way he carried himself as such, he projected an image of a Senate and Senate Presidency that was a government on its own. But Olusegun Obasanjo wouldn’t have it; neither were his colleagues ready for an independent senate.
Now, because of Buhari’s leadership style and his inclination to respect the separation of powers of the three arms of government, all those that will with head the other arms of government with him could manage to consolidate more power than any of the predecessors. Anyone who thinks a President and Senate President cannot amass so much powers while at the same time challenging and undermining themselves only needs to look to history and the constituency they both represent.
For all his influence as US President, Bill Clinton had to share the spotlight with House Speaker Newt Gingrich who had so much political weight and was virtually prime minister. Historically, Pakistan is replete with examples, where the rivalries between every Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and succeeding prime ministers or presidents are legendary. Then there is the rivalry between the prime minister and army chief with another between the army and Supreme Court, each extremely powerful in their own rights. In the middle of these political rivalries, are tribal lords/clerics also wielding their own influence. At present, there is a battle brewing in that country between the Judiciary on one hand and the executive and military on the other over the extent and powers of military courts to try terrorism cases.
Back to Buhari and the process of electing a speaker and senate president, the failure of All Progrresives Congress to come out publicly with a zoning formula can in some way be blamed on the unwillingness of the president-elect to show political leadership. An attempt is being made by Bola Tinubu to fill that vacuum. Back in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo made similar mistakes and found that it was Atiku Abubakar that determined who emerged Senate president which he quickly had to remedy. The end result to Obasanjo’s political indifference was that Atiku almost challenged him and had a good chance of snatching the PDP presidential ticket from him in the 2003 election.
With Buhari towing the same initial line as Obasanjo, the way the APC has so far managed this selection process of the National Assembly has shown that even Tinubu, for all the talk of him being a political maestro is unprepared for managing political leadership at the center. It is also evident that the party has completely shut out the south-south and south-east from the leadership options in the National Assembly leadership which could prove to be short-sighted. The PDP as it is today is reeling from defeat and does not appear capable of being a viable opposition party. There are even threats to sack its national chairman Ahmed Muazu and replace him with a south south governor which will as good as make the PDP a regional party considering that it no longer has any real footing in the north. Opposition for Buhari then, will likely come from within. Call it what you want, internal democracy or healthy competition, but right now the APC is divided into several camps and none of them are with Buhari. Those fighting for dominance are that of Tinubu, one of Saraki and that of former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Depending on whether Saraki gets the Senate Presidency and Tinubu installs a speaker with Atiku as BoT chairman of the party, where Buhari’s indifference to the politics of his party and that of the country could come back to haunt him is if the three should ever come together to conspire against him. And they all have that tendency. Just ask David Mark in the case of Saraki or Obasanjo in Atiku’s case. Unless Buhari is able to strike a balance between his anti-corruption drive, that scenario could very well play out. Here, Buhari’s only saving grace will be the people, maybe the Chief Justice of Nigeria and that fear that once again, a threat to the business and political interests of a handful of individuals could end his presidency. To avoid pitfalls, Buhari may have to get involved in the ‘political process’ of electing a speaker, senate president and maybe even making the ‘political decision’ of appointing a Chief Justice outside the recommendation of the National Judicial Council. There is at least a precedence of appointing a Chief Justice from outside the Supreme Court. As Obasanjo learnt very quickly and Goodluck Jonathan could not learnt quickly enough when he politically ignored certain regions, you can’t be president and remain in the political wilderness. The stakes are too high. Sometimes you have make your voice heard, even if it is to have a say in who gets elected as local government chairman in as far a place as Onitsha.
First, his hard won victory at the ballot box was 12 years in the making and it came at expense of a sitting president; a feat never before achieved in a country of diverse social, business and political interest. 30 years ago, it was the hurting business and political interests of a handful of military officers that brought down his government. Today, what Buhari has to thank for his return to power is the damage done to the political interest of the entire northern region which was the price paid to keep the same handful of military officers influential. For this reason and the experience of last 16 years of democracy, Buhari is likely to enjoy the political support of his base, the north till he chooses to quit or is constitutionally unable to continue. The alternative to that support will most probably be ceding power to other regions of the country.
From his utterances since elected however, it is clear that the president-elect is more focused on the nitty-gritty of governance, ending poverty, unemployment and is not very keen on politics and political administration. Evidence of this is in his hands-off approach to how the process is managed and who emerges in the leadership tussle for the Senate presidency and speaker of the House of Representatives. So far, the reason deduced for his stance is the likely repercussion in meddling with the selection process for matters that are strictly speaking; affairs of the National Assembly.
But the repercussions could be greater if a leadership that will be willing to challenge his authority at every turn emerges in both the lower and upper houses of assembly. Depending on style and character, whoever emerges Senate President could also wield more power and influence than any of his or her predecessors. There is a greater chance of that happening if Bukola Saraki emerges Senate President. Under David Mark, you wouldn’t be too far off the mark by suggesting the senate has been a rubber stamp assembly. With age on his side and the Senate Presidency as a platform, Saraki also has the potential to carve out a political empire for himself that will rival that of Bola Tinubu. We have seen him do it with the Nigeria’s Governance Forum, which wasn’t really a political entity until he managed to turn it into a potent force. For the short period that the late Chuba Okadigbo was Senate President and the way he carried himself as such, he projected an image of a Senate and Senate Presidency that was a government on its own. But Olusegun Obasanjo wouldn’t have it; neither were his colleagues ready for an independent senate.
Now, because of Buhari’s leadership style and his inclination to respect the separation of powers of the three arms of government, all those that will with head the other arms of government with him could manage to consolidate more power than any of the predecessors. Anyone who thinks a President and Senate President cannot amass so much powers while at the same time challenging and undermining themselves only needs to look to history and the constituency they both represent.
For all his influence as US President, Bill Clinton had to share the spotlight with House Speaker Newt Gingrich who had so much political weight and was virtually prime minister. Historically, Pakistan is replete with examples, where the rivalries between every Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and succeeding prime ministers or presidents are legendary. Then there is the rivalry between the prime minister and army chief with another between the army and Supreme Court, each extremely powerful in their own rights. In the middle of these political rivalries, are tribal lords/clerics also wielding their own influence. At present, there is a battle brewing in that country between the Judiciary on one hand and the executive and military on the other over the extent and powers of military courts to try terrorism cases.
Back to Buhari and the process of electing a speaker and senate president, the failure of All Progrresives Congress to come out publicly with a zoning formula can in some way be blamed on the unwillingness of the president-elect to show political leadership. An attempt is being made by Bola Tinubu to fill that vacuum. Back in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo made similar mistakes and found that it was Atiku Abubakar that determined who emerged Senate president which he quickly had to remedy. The end result to Obasanjo’s political indifference was that Atiku almost challenged him and had a good chance of snatching the PDP presidential ticket from him in the 2003 election.
With Buhari towing the same initial line as Obasanjo, the way the APC has so far managed this selection process of the National Assembly has shown that even Tinubu, for all the talk of him being a political maestro is unprepared for managing political leadership at the center. It is also evident that the party has completely shut out the south-south and south-east from the leadership options in the National Assembly leadership which could prove to be short-sighted. The PDP as it is today is reeling from defeat and does not appear capable of being a viable opposition party. There are even threats to sack its national chairman Ahmed Muazu and replace him with a south south governor which will as good as make the PDP a regional party considering that it no longer has any real footing in the north. Opposition for Buhari then, will likely come from within. Call it what you want, internal democracy or healthy competition, but right now the APC is divided into several camps and none of them are with Buhari. Those fighting for dominance are that of Tinubu, one of Saraki and that of former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Depending on whether Saraki gets the Senate Presidency and Tinubu installs a speaker with Atiku as BoT chairman of the party, where Buhari’s indifference to the politics of his party and that of the country could come back to haunt him is if the three should ever come together to conspire against him. And they all have that tendency. Just ask David Mark in the case of Saraki or Obasanjo in Atiku’s case. Unless Buhari is able to strike a balance between his anti-corruption drive, that scenario could very well play out. Here, Buhari’s only saving grace will be the people, maybe the Chief Justice of Nigeria and that fear that once again, a threat to the business and political interests of a handful of individuals could end his presidency. To avoid pitfalls, Buhari may have to get involved in the ‘political process’ of electing a speaker, senate president and maybe even making the ‘political decision’ of appointing a Chief Justice outside the recommendation of the National Judicial Council. There is at least a precedence of appointing a Chief Justice from outside the Supreme Court. As Obasanjo learnt very quickly and Goodluck Jonathan could not learnt quickly enough when he politically ignored certain regions, you can’t be president and remain in the political wilderness. The stakes are too high. Sometimes you have make your voice heard, even if it is to have a say in who gets elected as local government chairman in as far a place as Onitsha.
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